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Trading System Signals on 09-30-2025

Stocks pressed higher throughout the month. Today’s afternoon rally couldn’t quite seal an all-time-high close, yet the run off April’s lows powered a strong Q3 2025 finish. Markets continue to discount bearish signals—elevated shutdown odds on Polymarket and a Buffett-indicator near 220% of GDP. Historically, shutdowns resolve quickly… until they don’t. Fundamentals look rich, but liquidity and money supply are just as elevated.


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The new month and new quarter always provide us with new and interesting opportunities. It will be interesting to see how the year closes as markets can change on a dime and mean reversion to the 2023-2024 close is possible if the year ends the way it started. We keep both long and short strategies in place to capture extended moves in either direction. Tomorrow starts trading in Q4.


Gold was the highlight today with Gold Wave leading the gains.

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Hypothetical Trading System Portfolio Signals and Results:

Two System Portfolio NQ = -$780

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$1,470

Stock Index Portfolio 37 = -$535

Diversified Portfolio 57 = +$6,530

Silver Portfolio = -$5,300


Silver strategies were down on the day after a strong hot streak of 10 out of 12 equity peak days in a row. If you are waiting to start or add to a portfolio, losing streaks and drawdowns can be opportunities to begin trading a portfolio on a cyclical drawdown.


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CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY, SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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