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Trading System Signals on 11-19-2025

Stock Indexes surged quickly at the open, about 400 points in the Nasdaq, and then erased the gains and ran all the way back to the day session lows followed by and afternoon bounce that turned into a strong move in the afterhours on NVDA earnings, working to legitimize the "AI bubble". The stock indexes continue to have steep pullbacks and then rallies. The pullbacks remain ordered followed by massive rallies. The bulls have reclaimed 25,000 in the Nasdaq 100 futures in the evening session. If the market continues to have trouble following through on the downside and then easily rallies, we have to anticipate higher prices on the daily charts.


Typical indicators like VIX and market breadth are not reliable in this narrow tech rally that really moves the Nasdaq 100 in the opposite direction.


The back and forth is what we trade for though, and the V-Reversal NQ strategy captured the turning points well today hitting a profit on the short side early and the long side in the afternoon.


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The size and speed of the reversal in the stock indexes was challenging for many of the other stock index strategies today. The Diversified Portfolio 57 is up on the week after a strong start on Monday and Tuesday but gave a big portion back today with the wild reversal. Anticipation of NVDA earnings, the largest market cap company in the world, has a similar feel to anticipation of FOMC.


The pullback intra-day and the small afternoon rally accelerating in the afternoon, almost looks "coordinated".


Last year there was no Santa Claus rally and I'm sure the bulls want to make up for that. With Thanksgiving next week, the seasonality for the end of the year rally is on the radar.


Hypothetical Trading System Portfolio Signals and Results:

Two System Portfolio NQ = +$3,950

50K Portfolio = -$1,358.50on Micros, or -$757.50 when mapping Minis to Micros

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$4,635

Stock Index Portfolio 37 = -$10,945

Diversified Portfolio 57 = -$10,400

Silver Portfolio = +$1,500

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