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Trading System Signals on 12/08/2023

The Portfolio 49 was down -$3,530 today in hypothetical signals. This takes us down on the week about 3k and up 4.5K since November 17 when we released this portfolio setup.


Gold and Silver experienced spikey markets on the Jobs Friday Report. Gold was down -$825 while Silver was +$100 each taking 1 trade. Crude Oil was 0 for 4 and -$2,830 on the day. The Nasdaq was down -$575 while the S&P was up $600.


The ranges in the market are very narrow. The average daily range of the last 12 days as a percentage of its closing value is about 0.77% in the S&P.  These are near the lowest levels seen going back to mid 2021 and in 2019. There isn't much activity and the counter trend strategies in the S&P are the highlight.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was +$300 on the day.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro was up +$43.75 on the day taking the same trades as the E-mini.


Jobs Friday did not provide much of a catalyst for volatility as the VIX dropped to 12.35 by the close. The market already had its mind made up. 


It is interesting to see such a narrow range for almost a month, since the last CPI on November 14. The CPI week of November saw 90%+ of the entire week's gain occur in the 1-5 minute surge after CPI was released. You have to be positioned in advance and positioned correctly to profit in that scenario.


The initial reaction of a Jobs Report that included more jobs than expected was lower prices in stock indexes. If the economy is hotter than expected, why should the Fed lower what is typically a normal interest rate (except for 2008-2021). The massive liquidity stepped in and pushed the market up.


The market continues to hover in a narrow range just below its highs on the year. I'm ready for a breakout one way or another. This week we have CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. Will the outcome even matter or is the market going higher into the end of the year regardless? 

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