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Trading System Signals on 12/19/2023

The 250K Portfolio (Portfolio 52) hypothetical results were +$12.50 today as we continue to work a drawdown entry alert.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 hypothetical results were +$497.50. 


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro hypothetical results were +$45.75 with the same trades as the E-minis.


The Nasdaq day session daily charts have had higher lows 11 days in a row. Going back to July 1999 we have seen this only four other times:

-13 higher lows in a row in July 2009

-11 higher lows in a row in August 2014

-13 higher lows in a row in November 2014

-12 higher lows in a row in May 2017

-11 higher lows in a row on 12/19/2023


It's difficult to call a top though. Even though it is time for a correction after this runup, it's difficult to imagine the market would go into correction mode before January.


Yesterday, the Average Daily Range of the VIX was 0.63. Back in July of 2017 when the VIX hit its record low reading, the Average Daily Range of the VIX was 0.68 or .05 points higher.


The daily charts show extreme trends. The intra-day charts are very choppy. Strong trends as measured on daily charts don't reflect the intra-day price action. The intra-day price action can be much different than what you imagine when looking at an intra-day chart.


The strategies were close to an entry point intra-day. The price action is very tepid and dodgy, quickly moving away from entry points but not moving much overall in very narrow ranges. The market surged at the open in the first 1 minute of trade and then waited for the last 10 minutes to expand the daily range. 


We are still close to a drawdown entry alert and working on capturing that. We have anticipated a higher move into the end of the year, although, I anticipated more momentum and range as well as more back and forth and ebb and flow. This low VIX grind is like watching paint dry most of the day.

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