As we start the new month and quarter, our entry into the portfolios is based on managing risk and starting during a drawdown.
The price action early on generated a shallow intra-day drawdown but then quickly recovered. The frequency of constant bottoming patterns and recoveries in the past month has been more frequent. We anticipate a bit of a shake-up in the market.
Lately, every event that would normally and potentially create at least a profit taking pullback generates a bid instead with contrarian intentions. NVDA stock splits, low VIX reading, new months, or new quarters; the stock indexes remain constantly bid and challenge lower and lower VIXs with a close of 12.22 in the VIX today.
We don't want to get lulled into this pattern, especially with the upcoming news flow this week.
The new One Million MNS 130 was up +$7,500 while the 250K was up $1,500 in hypothetical results. The Stock Index Portfolio 18 was up +$4,160 in hypotheticals. We have seen the beginning of new weeks and new months, typically more challenging to trade. We like to wait for a "shake up" in the market and enter on a drawdown alert to buy the dip in our portfolio of trading systems.
The news flow this week could generate some volatility.
Jay Powell speaks tomorrow morning right at the open at 9:30 am EST and could generate quite a bit of chop in the market.
JOLTS is released 30 minutes after Powell begins speaking.
There is a list of economic reports on Wednesday morning as well with Jobs Friday in the pre-market on Friday. All of this with the market closed on Thursday for July 4th.
Additionally, as we approach the political season, we could see higher VIX levels and more range in the markets, which I anticipate could be favorable to our trading.

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