Trading System Signals on July 19, 2024

The tone was different yesterday after the Crowdstrike IT blackout. The pace of the market seemed different as the choppy pullback continue with another 3.7% rise in the VIX. The VIX hit the 17 handle yesterday and closed at 16.52. The VIX rose everyday this past week. The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite are down on the month while the S&P 500 maintains a gain of less than 1%.

The One Million MNS 130 hypothetical results were -$5,783.75 while the 250K Portfolio hypothetical results were -$1,156.75. The Stock Index Portfolio 18 was -$5,245.

I show the One Million MNS 130 drawdown at -$27K, near our threshold for a drawdown entry alert while the Stock Index Portfolio 18 drawdown is at -$7.9K which is also near our drawdown entry alert. We are verifying this based on the global IT outage that affected many technologies.

We are waiting for the right drawdown entry alert to start trading live.

The V-Reversals were down yesterday trying to capture V-Reversal long trades in such a slow sell off. The afternoon was so choppy that the short trades didn't have any follow through.

The Nasdaq day session close was about the same price as the 11:40 am EST low. This is similar to many sell-off patterns we have seen the last few years. The net selling in the markets often time has been early in the day followed by chop after the first or second hour and a closing price on the day session near to the lows made during the first or second hour of the day.

The IT blackout seems to have affected the TS data as there is two hours of data missing from 1:15-3:15 am EST in the middle of the night. Also the values I show in Tradestation are off for the difference from the previous day's close. For example the Nasdaq futures show -434.50 and -2.16% on the day. This is not true as the data is incorrect. The Nasdaq 100 futures closed down -193 points yesterday based on 4:15 pm EST closing differences.

The net difference between the 4:15 pm EST close and the low made at 3:15 pm EST yesterday (about 25 hours) was only about 58 points in 25 hours (since there was a big bounce in the last hour yesterday working to support 19750 in the Nasdaq futures).

This is much smaller than the imagined -434 point sell off the quotes show in Tradestation. I believe these differences are based on the global IT outage and should be corrected in the platform.