Trading System Signals on July 24, 2024

The One Million MNS 130 hypothetical results were +26,542.50 while the 250K hypothetical results were +$5,308.25. We trade 20% of the One Million MNS 130 in the 250K Portfolio. The Stock Index Portfolio 18 hypotheticals were -$1,720. The trend shorts in the Nasdaq were the highlights. These are the type of strategies that have not done well for a long time but were in the portfolio since they are due for a favorable cycle. The Stock Index Portfolio 18 has less trend short Nasdaq strategies.

Top Short Trade Signals on July 24, 2024

The One Million MNS 130 eclipsed the old equity peaks from July 10 by $800.

We did not trade live since the One Million MNS 130 was not at its drawdown entry point as we had thought it was yesterday at the close. Running the results last night shows the data has been off from the Global IT outage from last Friday. We are targeting a 30K or 3% drawdown to start live trading in the One Million MNS 130 (and 250K) since we had a big runup earlier this month. We were close to the entry point but did not get the drawdown entry point intra-day. The Stock Index Portfolio 18 was at a drawdown entry alert of 12.6K at the close yesterday and remains at a drawdown entry alert point with a 14.2K drawdown at the close today since the Stock Index Portfolio 18 was down on the day.

The Nasdaq 100 has given back about 37% of its gains its gains this year (nearly a Fibonacci pullback) and is down 8% from its highs. The VIX closed above 18 and we could be entering a new potential trading environment with more volatility if the VIX holds above 17.

In Q1 2024, the market was full of stop running based on our trading system signals and a challenging quarter. In Q2, 2024, we were able to sync up with the market by entering on drawdowns and posting some good gains for the quarter. At the start of Q3, the strategy signals are doing well but we are not getting enough volatility in the equity curve of the trading systems to give us a typical drawdown entry alert in order to go live. While Q1 was a "stop running" environment". Q3 is a "not filling our limit entry" environment so far. This is in reference to the equity curve of the portfolio and not the individual trading systems per se.

It is great to see the signaling work so well and validating but we are anxious to trade live and capture these moves. We are not typically on the sidelines this much. It is disappointing to miss the gains so far this month. Changing our strategy to "just jump in" without a drawdown entry is a "blink" that usually "catches" the volatility at the wrong time. "Chasing" performance never ends well.

We stick to our strategy. With this approach, sometimes we miss the runups but this same approach has limited our losses during more volatile periods and periods of time when we have seen strategy degradation.

While index funds are down on the month, it is good to see how the strategy signals would have performed.