Trading System Signals on March 11, 2022 - Shorting Futures into the Close


50K Portfolio 1 Micro SI 25 (LIVE) = +$480

200K Portfolio 6 Micro SI 25 (LIVE) = +$2,900


The strategies are up on the week and month and flat as we go into the weekend.


SI 25 = Stock Index Portfolio 25 fully automated algorithmic trading systems portfolio.


Today was the last day of the Feds QE mortgage backed security purchases and the Fed is scheduled raise the fed funds rate from 0 to 0.25% at next weeks FOMC meeting.


QE has dampened volatility. QT will increase volatility back to more normal levels and remove the markets ability to prop up the long side which has prevented a more natural two sided price action and normal price discovery.


I wouldn't be surprised to see a "surprise" hike from the Fed that is greater than 0.25%. The market patterns looked awkward this week as I anticipated a close below the February 24th lows but the market was held higher. The Fed's balance sheet has more than doubled the last 24 months. We take long and short trades but believe the market is still ahead of the economy and needs a much greater correction. Normal corrections are healthy for the market and will allow it to move higher in the long term. I also believe the market has been arrogantly dismissive of the economic implications of Russia's war on Ukraine. Additionally, negotiations for a resolution to end the war are showing zero progress and this could go on for awhile. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to its lowest level since 2011.

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