Trading System Signals on May 15, 2024

The Stock Index Portfolio 18 was the leading portfolio today with +$10,155 in hypothetical signals. (For live trading, we trade the One Million MNS 110). We have timed the market perfectly for this trading cycle as we waited all month to start trading and signaled a drawdown entry alert for Tuesday's trade. Since Tuesday, this portfolio is up $12K per E-mini and should be at equity peaks (pending final calculations in the Portfolio Calculator).

Our live trading of the One Million MNS 110 (with a 20% allocation per 250K) was hindered by technology issues since the drawdown entry alert on Tuesday. After turning the strategies on live for the first full day of trading for Tuesday's session, my dedicated server was deleted by the provider (by mistake) and we exited yesterday with a small gain after my local desktop (backup trading platform) had additional issues with a buggy and forced Tradestation update.

We were back up and running on the server by mid-morning today but not after missing the big run-up on CPI. For live trading, we are up about 5.6% on the quarter versus about a 6.9% gain in the hypotheticals.

The portfolios released at the end of March, for April's trade, remain strong and are closing in on new equity peaks based on hypotheticals.

We know that everything goes in cycles in trading. In the second quarter, our strategies are in sync with the market and continue to generate nice trading system signals. We are working for a favorable cycle going forward with a strong strategy set and working for a strong finish in 2024 by strengthening our technology.

We continue to research new strategies and markets as well.

On the economic reports, the reaction to PPI yesterday was initially down in the stock indexes, followed by a rally. The CPI today drove stock indexes to new closing highs. The liquidity continues to be the driving factor in the market. The "trillions on the sideline" continue to pile into equities.

We have seen the market rally since the Fed meeting in June 2022 with the expectation the Fed will pivot into a rate cut. Regardless of the economic news, the market has rallied for two years into this pending rate cut. With such a strong rally into an anticipated rate cut, we have to consider the "sell on the news" trade once there is a rate cut.

Personally, I'm still not sure why the Fed needs to cut rates from what is really a long term normal Fed funds rate. Wall Street insists that it needs to be done as easier money can drive equities higher.

Jobless claims will be released tomorrow.