Trading System Signals on November 2, 2021 – Pre FOMC

Updated: Apr 21


I want to go over the trading system results on the day for the 200K and 50K portfolio, and all strategy access, we’re tracking over 127 strategies. These are the results on the day. 200K was down again today. The model that we were trading was at equity peaks at the end of the month. And now we are down about 12,300 to start the month, which is a draw down alert and we are currently holding a couple of Gold positions overnight. The market’s only closed for an hour though, minus $600 on the 50K portfolio. Roughly, we had two gap continuation losses and one small Cobra Crude long trade that won on the 50K. So that portfolio is in about a $2,000 draw down on the 50K.

So, let’s go over the trading system signals, market internals. Interesting to note, we have the Fed meeting tomorrow. FOMC, NASDAQ is up higher than it was yesterday at all-time highs. S&P, same thing. The ticks were kind of sideways. Advanced decline line was down and weak all day, and the VIX was also down, which is inversely related. So, this makes sense, inverse for the advanced decline line, the broader market was weaker than the narrower Indexes, such as the NASDAQ and the S&P.

So, let’s go over the trades on the day. Wasn’t quite as choppy yesterday, but still a very narrow range. You see the high 4627, low 4605. 22 point range, this is similar to an 11 point range when the S&P was at 2300. There were days when I would remember when the S&P was in a 12 point range, back when the S&P was in that 1500 to 2000 dollar area. So, it’s very narrow on a percentage basis, 22 points was a decent range back then, when the S&P was at 2000, but now these markets seem to continue to revert back to point values versus percentage changes when volatility is low, or to get that low for ranges to be that low. So very narrow ranges. Want to show you the trades on the day now.

We’ll start with the energies today. Crude Oil, Cobra Crude conservative plus 145. On the short trade, minus $725 on Cobra Crude aggressive. No trades on Natural Gas or RBOB. We have no rollovers at all this week. Let’s go to the Stock Indexes. We had an Adaptive Moving Average, plus $562.50, this one just continues to capture the melt up moves. So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 days out of about… There’s three challenging days, and 11 good days. So, 11 out of 14 days where there’s just, market is just melting up with very little resistance and Adaptive Moving Averages taken advantage of that. 60 minute Breakout, no trades on that, those were yesterday. TICK Count Trend, minus $137.50. TICK Count Trend one minute, minus $150. Night Trader hit its profit target, so Night Trader continues to have some winning trades overnight.

That’s Bullish Asia IV Long ES plus $987.50. TICK Fader, minus $225. VSD long only, plus $275. In regards to NASDAQ, what I was going to say is we talked about NASDAQ 25,000. Made another video today. That sounds really big, but that would be, in 1999 to March of 2000, October to March, October 99 to March 2000, the market made an 82% move. Strong time of year, melt up is possible to 20, 25, 28,000. I’ll let you take a look at that video that I made earlier in the rationale behind it. It would only take a 28% move I believe to get to 20,000. So that’s, in this type of market environment, something to consider. I sometimes if you expect a market to crash, sometimes it’ll melt up first before it crashes.

And once again, it could do anything. It could crash from here. It could go sideways in a narrow channel as well. We have FOMC tomorrow minus, -$650 on Gap Continuation, this has gone through a losing streak now after having made recent equity peak. If you look at this strategy though, for the last three years, it averages $100, $103 with slippage and commission. $4245 draw down, and it’s only right 31% of the time. So, it has a tight stop-loss of $300, and you can see it’s gone through its normal losing streak. It has these normal losing streaks where it goes through a cycle of losing streaks. Max losing trades is 11 in a row. Max consecutive losing trades is 11 in a row.

Let’s take a look at what number we’re on now, let’s look at the periodicals, let’s look at the dailies. So, no winners since these big winners on October the 25th. One, and there’s three trades on that day, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 8 losers in a row, so could be a good time to start this strategy if you’re not trading it. That’s a Gap Continuation 2020, it does have a tight stop. $300, 15 points. Very, very narrow. Expanding that stop-loss might bring you a higher success rate. 60 Minute Breakout A, plus $1070. 60 Minute Breakout B, $1410. This one continues to just do really well. We stopped trading this at the beginning of October, and as part of cutting back on Gold and this strategy because it had performed so poorly, it did from September 1st to October 1st, it did this, this went from 30,000 down to about eight… It’s about a $20,000 draw down in this one strategy, and ever since we stopped trading on October 1st, it’s just gone straight back up.

So, sometimes that happens in trading. It’s very frustrating when that happens, but the old portfolios are rebounding mainly because this 60 Minute Breakout B, which has been on fire and has a long term backtest, just did horrible in September and has done amazing since the beginning of October. So VSD long, only plus $355. VSD long short, minus $880. Gap Continuation, big stop-loss. There’s a bigger stop-loss that also lost today, minus $725. Viper 2008, minus $1250. We don’t trade all of these every day. There’s different strategies, and different portfolios on our portfolio page. We’ve already gone over the energies. Asia Gold 4, minus $340, and Gold Reversal, minus $450. Kind of a slow… This market’s kind of slowed down, we’re used to is seeing it whipping around. So, we got in a long trade on what we’ll like to be Reversal and market pullback. We’ll see.

I anticipate that Gold will go higher at some point. Maybe not on this trade, but those are the trades in Gold Reversal and Asia Gold 4 Long, no trades in silver, no trades in copper. Euro currency, minus -$275. Soybeans, no trades today in soy beans. Fairly quiet day in the commodity markets as well. Also in the stock market. Not a lot of trades, just slow melt up pre FOMC. Here are the optional, here are the oil. 60 Minute Breakout short has had one trade recently, which lost. No trades today though. So, those are the trades on the day for Tuesday, November the 2nd, 2021. The second trading day of the week, second trading day of the month, and FOMC tomorrow. Look for that and might move the market.

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