Equity Peak and Drawdown Alert for Portfolios and Market Analysis for Trendline Intersection


The stock index portfolios had a surge of about 90K in profits per E-mini last month during this cycle.. We were on the sidelines with Covid and missed it.


On July 8th-18th, this portfolio was down about 10k per E-mini. We started again on August 9th of this month and we have treaded water since we started again, losing less than the portfolio did during this same time period of July, but also a cycle of "sideways to down".


From July 19th through August 3rd, the current portfolio as well as some of the older portfolios did well on the stock indexes with around 90K in gains. Since we were on the sidelines, this is hypothetical.


While past performance (hypothetical or live results) is not indicative of future results. The opportunity to trade the portfolio now provides us with a good opportunity for gains while also managing and defining the risk.


July 14th marks the beginning of the current trendline. Friday's low touched the bottom of the current trendline. July 14th - July 29th (last trade day of month) saw gains of 48K.


The cycles and days may not line up exactly since Friday was the 19th. The last trade day of July was the 29th while the last trade day of August will be the 31st, so the calendar days are slightly skewed with the trade day of the month.


These cycles do not necessarily repeat based on the calendar but the drawdown curve is very cyclical and gives us a way to manage our risk. One interesting thing to note as well is the intersection of two trendlines moving in different directions.

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