Hypothetical Trading System Signals on August 3, 2022 - New Equity Peaks in Stock Index Portfolio 26


Equity peaks today in the Stock Index Portfolio 26 with gains of 28.5K per e-mini. These are hypothetical trading system signals. We sent out a drawdown alert last night with the portfolio in a 13.3k drawdown per E-mini. We were waiting for a 15k plus drawdown and were 2k away from getting in. I anticipated the open would easily have enough chop to get us in today intra-day. The market and equity curve just went straight up though. The open has been very choppy this year, but not today.


The trading systems have gone from a very cold streak in June to now a very hot streak in August. The last 5 trading days has seen 75% winning days as measured over the last 12 days. Basically 9 out of 12 days have been winners the last 5 days. We anticipated a little more "cooling off" and why we waited for more of a drawdown.


I'm out of sync this summer and have been more risk averse having missed the runup in July after pausing while I was sick.


It is worse to miss the July runup and then get slammed into a worse case drawdown by starting on a drawdown that is too small than it is to miss the next runup. This is my trading psychology perspective. It is still frustrating because we missed another equity peak.


The biggest concern is that the portfolios have had a very hot streak and the markets have had a very strong runup. The trends have been un naturally smooth when the market is moving higher and un naturally choppy when the market is moving lower. As I anticipate another rollover in the market, I want to see better performance on the short side in the new portfolio. We have better strategies for shorting with the latest update and the market is also due for more natural selling during the next sell off cycle.


Equity peaks are always positive though and affirming of the portfolio setup.


I am still going to wait for a 15k drawdown before starting live again although missing these moves is killing me!

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