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Live Trading System Results on March 14, 2024


The bucket shop style of trading with high frequency V-Reversals continues with three challenging days in a row. We are down -1.4% on the day and -2.4% on the month.  The month started strong and it looked as if the tone would change. The last three days have been a return to sloppy price action and the VIX is down on the week.


We have seen more than average chop the last three days. We often times have seen some big Friday's after this type of price action in the market. We increased to one full contract today and are looking for a bounce in tomorrow's trade for some favorable price action or we will pause for the quarter.


I counted three major V-Reversals today.


The V-Reversal I and II didn't trade the initial V-Reversal today and V-Reversal IV was stopped near the lows right before the end of day rally in the Nasdaq from 3:35 pm EST to put in a 130 point rally in the last 25 minutes for the final V-Reversal. We have put in a lot of research to capture these types of V-Reversals. More focus on the last 30 minutes of trading....


We do highlight some of the XMA, VWAP, Parabolic SAR strategies that I developed two weeks ago that have called the moves well and did capture the V-Reversals in hypothetical trade signals the last couple of days. I don't typically jump on brand new strategies with 18-24 month backtests but that seems to be the best approach lately.


The Nasdaq closed below its V-Reversal low yesterday.


We were up on Silver and the S&P today. We missed a trade in Gold flash on PPI as the entry was at the pivot low. We started the day trading less than a full contract today but increased to a full contract by the end of the day to try to take advantage of the drawdown cycle lining up with the weekly, monthly cycles that are favorable. Our live results for the strategies were slightly better than the hypotheticals for one full contract since we missed the Gold Flash trade and there was some additional slippage on Silver.


If we don't get some positive price action tomorrow, then we will pause for the quarter. We are due for a 500 - 1000 point correction in the Nasdaq. 1000 points is only about a 5% move in the Nasdaq.


The market has been tightly wound with excess liquidity and overly anxious to get in on the shallow dips as the market continues to shrug off higher inflation readings with CPI and PPI today.


AI has created a pollyanna mindset. AI is nothing new but the marketing of AI has really taken off as perception becomes reality in the short term while the truth becomes the reality in the long term.

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