Portfolio Level Backtesting - Quickly Test New Rules in Microsoft Excel - Gap Up Only Trades


We wanted to determine how our Stock Index Portfolio 26 would work on day trade only strategies for the E-mini S&P and E-mini Nasdaq if we only trade on days when the E-mini Nasdaq opened at its previous day's close or higher. To implement this, we would simply turn off automation for the day and walk away if the Nasdaq opened lower at 9:30 am.


Since mid 2020, there was only one losing month. There were no losing months since January 2021 and the worse case drawdown was slightly less than 20k per e-mini.


The historical return over drawdown is smaller and the historical worse case drawdown is about the same. This has been an extreme short term bias that has lasted about 1.5 years.


With fundamentals changing related to rising interest rates, the end of the 40 year bond bull market, and monetary policy, it is not a bias worth pursuing in my opinion. We need further proof that this would be a good approach.

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