Today, July CPI was released at 8.5%. There was some massive volatility and then a fast move higher. All the gains were achieved in less than 3 minutes.
There were two unusual things I noticed in the Nasdaq futures.
The first was, three minutes before the release, the price started to surge. It was a bit of a false start. I'm not sure if the CPI was leaked early to some or if some algos moved early. We said yesterday, CPI data is always twisted into a bullish narrative.
The second strange pricing behavior was the 55 point difference between the Micros and E-minis on the mean reversion back after the false start. I don't remember the last time I saw a 55 point difference between swing highs and lows between Micros and Minis.
The 60M Breakout NQ strategy was not stopped out on the E-mini but it was on the Micro since there was such a big difference in prices.
The market has been rallying today on peak inflation. I'm not so sure. Markets and economic data have ebbs and flows and there isn't always a V Reversal. Peak inflation has been "called" since October of last year. They have been wrong for a long time and on one down tick, they claim victory. It looks like false euphoria to me.
The bulls are giddy and it could be the peak in the bear market rally instead of peak inflation as the commodity markets have started to rally today.
Stay tuned for our daily report released daily after the closing bell.