Trading System Signals on 01-13-2026

Tuesday's trade was some of the sloppiest market action across all markets that we have seen in a while. We had losses across the board in all Portfolios and all markets. The Diversified Portfolio 57 had one of its worse days historically with losses in all markets. The daily dollar ranges in the precious metals have never been higher while the ranges in the stock indexes are stubbornly compressed fighting a normal pullback with extreme effort.

Holding for a bounce in the equity is one of the best approaches after this type of losing streak.

Also focusing on the E-mini Nasdaq, 21 strategies, day trade only, in the Diversified Portfolio 57 is another approach. Focusing on just the E-mini Nasdaq strategies, we see that it is also in a drawdown and 12K from a max drawdown and also easier to manage from an execution perspective in relation to the way exchanges are handling stop and market orders in the metals.

Some of the wide-ranging price action in the metals has been difficult to trade from both a strategy perspective as well as an execution perspective. From a strategy perspective, we have not had as many smooth, breakaway moves as we anticipated over the last month in Gold and Silver and there is a lot of stop running price movement around every signal in the precious metals lately. From an execution perspective, the higher prices and wider daily dollar ranges in the metals can require constant monitoring as the exchanges are limiting orders to limit orders and stop limit orders, during some time periods, and disallowing stop and market orders, causing order rejects for some automated strategies. This requires monitoring 23 hours per day to make sure that these types of strategies are in sync.

The hypothetical trading system results for Tuesday's trade on 01-13-2026 are:

Yesterday CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) numbers were released. I like to keep the big picture in perspective in relation to interest rates, inflation, markets, and economic numbers.

From the April 2020 lows to the highs we saw in October 2025, the Nasdaq-100 went on a massive run. From an intra-month low to the intra-month high, it climbed from roughly 6,771 to about 26,182—around a 379% gain. That is an extraordinary move in a relatively short period of time.

After a surge like that, a 20-30% pullback from all-time highs wouldn’t be shocking at all for free-market futures traders but extremely devastating for Wall Street bullish investors. What’s hard—borderline impossible—is the timing. We don’t trade by trying to predict the next major peak or crash. We simply keep that bigger picture in mind while running short-term, long and short strategies that are designed to react to what the market is actually doing.

The real question is whether we’ll get the kind of “classic” correction that free markets tend to produce… or whether the market has changed. Since 2009, investors have watched policymakers' step in repeatedly when risk assets come under pressure. Whether you agree with it or not, that pattern has helped fuel asset inflation—and over time, some of that inflation has shown up in everyday prices too.

Here’s the only framework that consistently makes sense to me: a lot of investors are treating tech and other high-quality assets as an inflation hedge. Stocks are priced in dollars. If the dollar buys less over time, then it takes more dollars to buy the same stream of future earnings. In that world, nominal prices can keep climbing even if the “real” story is more complicated.

And that’s the catch-22. If we prioritize a strong currency and true price discovery, we risk a painful reset in inflated asset values. If we prioritize stability through intervention, markets become less “free” over time—and the longer-term cost can be higher inflation and weaker purchasing power. In the extreme, we can all end up with bigger numbers in our accounts—while those dollars buy less and less.