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Two Sell the News Events Last Week - Time to Go Short?



As of 10:50 am EST, our day trade algorithms are net long on stock indexes, net long on Crude Oil, and net short on Gold showing profits on the day.


We are adding short signals to one of our top day trading algorithms, V-Reversal COMB 24. This is a strategy that we have traded long only on the E-mini Nasdaq futures.


Recent performance is better for this trading system and it improves the performance in our top Portfolios including the One Million MNS as well as the Stock Index Portfolio 18.


The two sell the news events include:


1.) The ECB Rate cut last week by 0.25% could be the beginning of the trend for central banks to cut rates. The market has been waiting for this "pivot" for two years. The current regime for many of the day trade patterns we observe, started in June 2022 based on the idea that the Fed is about to pivot. Two years later, the ECB is the first to move. It will be interesting to see if the FOMC follows and if inflation will turn higher in the long term once they do. Many times, when the Fed cuts rates, markets rally. The idea that the markets would sell off on a rate cut is certainly contrarian. In 2009 when the Fed cut rates to 0%, the stock market was in a steep bear market. This time we are at or near all-time highs in the stock indexes.


2.) The NVDA stock split today is the second "sell the news event". Individual equities that announce a stock split can rally into the stock split date, followed by profit taking. NVDA has certainly rallied into the stock split to the tune of a $3 trillion market cap. 


These are classical "sell the news" trades. Since NVDA has such a heavy "weighting" on the Nasdaq, and interest rates have been one of the main fundamental drivers, we could see some profit taking here that would affect the stock index futures. I would at least expect that the market would generate more two-sided price action.


Events like this may not always be immediate but more of a gradual shift in regime or day trade patterns. This is why our adjustment is gradual by adding the short signal back to just one of our many trading systems. There is still liquidity in this market that is determined to drive prices higher.


Even if we are wrong here, this algorithm takes both long and short trades and our portfolio of day trading strategies includes many long only strategies.


Current subscribers to the V-Reversal COMB 24 NQ for the E-mini Nasdaq or portfolios that include this top trading system can simply turn on short signals in the settings to make this adjustment. We demonstrate this in the video for Tradestation.


The V-Reversal trading system is available in Tradestation, NinjaTrader, and Multicharts and is included in the Stock Index Portfolio 18.






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