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Hypothetical Trading System Signals on July 29, 2022 - Equity Peaks and Copper Bull


The Portfolios are ending the month and week at new equity peaks in both the Stock Index Portfolio 22 and the Stock Index and Commodity Portfolio. The Stock Index and Commodity Portfolio was up $6k today while the Stock Index Portfolio 22 was up $4k today. The 200K Portfolio was up $1.6K and the 50K Portfolio was up $400. These are hypothetical signals. Its been a slow summer with a drawdown in June and some out of sync trading decisions in July with Covid and mainly sitting on the sidelines.


We are looking forward to getting back in sync with the strategies in August.

Copper moved higher today for the biggest gain in the commodities. Could there be greater demand for Copper with new legislation this week related to semiconductors and science?


The Nasdaq strategies did not have any trading signals until about 2pm EST, which was unusual. The continuous move into the close gave the long signals some nice gains on the day, even with the late entries.


There was a long list of economic reports and corporate earnings this week and the bulls got together and decided the Fed was going to pivot, running the market up three days in a row. We anticipated the market may do this since there has been a lack of balance sheet reduction. There has not been much tightening and inflation is still high.


I don't see how the Fed can afford to pivot with high inflation but maybe they will. The were the last to see inflation and have a record of poor decision making. The Fed seems to cave to political and stock market/Wall Street pressures.


Congress passed a bill, Chips and Science Act of 2022, this week that will serve as fiscal stimulus to the tune of $280 billion in new debt. The Fed has only reduced its balance sheet by $75 billion which is less than 1% from all time highs.


$280 billion in new debt minus 75 billion (from Feds balance sheet) = $205 billion in positive stimulus. Technological advances can reduce inflation but $280 billion in debt based stimulus would add to inflation.


These are the types of policy decisions that can be used to bias our strategies towards long or short positions in commodities and stocks (such as going long Copper).


We prefer short term trading strategies that can take both long and short signals in this market.


We will have the latest Portfolio Calculator out this weekend for the end of month results as well as the addition of Robot 2022.


I am also working on an updated Stock Index Portfolio that changes a few strategies. We can make adjustments to our portfolios at equity peaks as well as drawdowns. We are always looking for the best way to trade the current market and are looking forward to August's trade - which starts on Monday.


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