Live Trading System Signals on 05/12/2025

There is a reason that major news releases and earnings report happen in the afterhours or over the weekend. It is easier to move the markets in a desired direction with persistence when there is less liquidity. We saw this in 2024 when all of the net gains were at night. The nighttime operations, news driven cycles, and massive gap ups have a way of changing the intra-day natural order and patterns.

The One Million MNS was down -3.30% on the day, phasing into the 17 System Stock Index Portfolio with 3 E-minis per signal while the 250K Portfolio was down -$8,250. We have endured 7 losing days out of the 8 trading days so far in May trading Sibilance and now Stock Index Portfolio 17. Both of those portfolios have both gone 1 for 8 since the start of May.

The Stock Index Portfolio 17 was down -$12K per contract. It is $700 away from its worst-case drawdown. The upside potential to new equity peaks is $32K per contract with a $96K potential with 3 E-mini contracts per signal. This same group of strategies hit equity peaks 4 out the last 5 days in April.

We are looking for a bounce at this drawdown level after an extremely rough start to May. If it does not hold up on an end of day basis, then we will pause for research.

The potential for a reduced news cycle is possible in the short term after this weekend's tariff news and the gap up today. We typically see favorable and unfavorable cycles in trading. We give the strategies some room for some favorable price action based on the drawdown level, losing series, and news cycle resolution in the short term.

The market has been trading like it does when there is QE. I noticed a slight blip up recently on the FRED Economic Data: Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Primary Credit: Wednesday Level.

Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Primary Credit: Wednesday Level (WLCFLPCL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

It would be great if there was real time data for the Fed's Fred data so that it would be less "stealth". I guess that is the point though.

It was interesting to see the spike on this chart in 2023 and how much higher it was than the spike in 2008 and 2020. Instead of having 0% interest rates or an increase in the Feds balance sheet, we have a different type of QE.

V-Reversal NQ was also down on the day with two losing trades. The first short was about 16 points away from a profit target. With the massive ranges and back and forth price action, it is unusual for several of our recent trades on V-Reversal to come so close to the profit target before reversing.

They hypothetical trading system signals are below with $25 round turn slippage and commission. 1/10th for Micros.

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| Portfolio | Combined Daily P/L |

|--------------------------------+----------------------|

| Stock Index Portfolio 17 (1 Emini) -$11,990.00

| Stock Index Portfolio 17 (3 Emini) -$35,970.00

| 50K Portfolio $530.00

| EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio -$3,515.00

| EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio II -$1,585.00

| EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio -$1,585.00

| EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio -$5,265.00

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