Live Trading System Signals on 05/15/2025 - Stop Running & Monthly Symmetry

You have to wonder why the market was so anxious to quickly run back up to overbought territory.

The markets have traded much differently intra-day the last 7 months than they typically have over the last 7 years. We observed an unusually choppy election season that has never gone away. We have to consider a regime change at this point. The market has been driven by the news cycle which has created much more churn and most recently, very narrow range churn. The ranges have quickly collapsed which is a limiting factor on follow through trades.

V-Reversal was on its way to a second winner before the market reversed lower all the way to our stop loss today before reversing back up towards breakeven. A second winner hitting its profit target on the day would have recovered about half of the monthly losses in the Two System Portfolio. Here is a screenshot in Multicharts. We have had an unusually high percentage of trades like this so far in May across many strategies.

Here is a performance summary for this strategy going back to 1/1/2022. The current drawdown is in line with previous drawdowns though. If I start a single trading system, I prefer to start during a drawdown like this instead of starting at an equity peak.

The One Million MNS was down -2.5% while the 250K Portfolio was down -$5,000. The last two days we have given back the gains from Tuesday and are near a worse case drawdown in Stock Index Portfolio 17. We look for a bounce on Friday's trade as this is a drawdown entry alert.

MONTHLY SYMMETRY: The Stock Index Portfolio 17 went into a 32.1K drawdown through April 17th and then gained 47.7K into the end of the month, making equity peaks 4 out of the last 5 days. We are in a 31.8K drawdown through May 15th and see the same potential symmetry into the end of May, giving us the opportunity to re-capture the losses on the month and go positive. (This is based on trading one E-mini per signal. Past performance is not indicative of future results).

Historically, the markets typically trend 20-30% of the time. Lately, on a day trade basis, it would appear to be < 5% of the time. One thing that we don't typically see is a persistent intra-day downtrend. A persistent downtrend day would be technically sound here. The tone of the market can change quickly and while we have seen the quickest snap back historically after one of the fastest sell offs, we seem to go through a series of market events where we see a new bearish record followed by a new bullish record followed by a new bearish record, etc. Nothing would surprise me here including new all-time highs in the next few days or a drop below 20,000 in the Nasdaq.

The hypothetical results are shown below for the portfolios.

Stock Index Portfolio 17 (1 NQ) -$8,255.00

Stock Index Portfolio 17 (3 NQ) -$24,765.00

50K Portfolio -$2,700.00

EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio -$1,050.00

EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio II +$1,300.00

EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio +$475.00

EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio -$2,800.00