Five out of six Market Portfolios that we released at the end of March for April's trade hit equity peaks on Friday, showing strong gains on the month. The latest Portfolio Calculator has been updated through Friday, April 26, 2024.
How does trading during FOMC Week on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday look going back to 2022. There are 18 FOMC meetings since January 2022. There is a new tab in the Portfolio Calculator that will show the FOMC Week results for any portfolio going back to 2022. Simply select the portfolio in the Capstone worksheet. You can then see the results in the FOMC Week worksheet.
These are the results for the One Million MNS 110 Portfolio
3/20/2024 | $ 7,335.00 |
1/31/2024 | $ 16,250.00 |
12/13/2023 | $ 23,560.00 |
11/1/2023 | $ 11,695.00 |
9/20/2023 | $ (17,757.50) |
7/26/2023 | $ 18,145.00 |
6/14/2023 | $ 35,770.00 |
5/3/2023 | $ (8,657.50) |
3/22/2023 | $ 9,240.00 |
2/1/2023 | $ 34,822.50 |
12/14/2022 | $ 38,970.00 |
11/2/2022 | $ 3,040.00 |
9/21/2022 | $ (3,982.50) |
7/27/2022 | $ 20,907.50 |
6/15/2022 | $ (3,807.50) |
5/4/2022 | $ 37,165.00 |
3/16/2022 | $ 80,930.00 |
1/26/2022 | $ 2,785.00 |
These are the results for the Stock Index Portfolio 18
3/20/2024 | $ (3,212.50) |
1/31/2024 | $ 7,382.50 |
12/13/2023 | $ 9,317.50 |
11/1/2023 | $ 5,692.50 |
9/20/2023 | $ (5,765.00) |
7/26/2023 | $ 7,150.00 |
6/14/2023 | $ 3,712.50 |
5/3/2023 | $ (2,690.00) |
3/22/2023 | $ (4,065.00) |
2/1/2023 | $ 12,037.50 |
12/14/2022 | $ 8,800.00 |
11/2/2022 | $ (5,635.00) |
9/21/2022 | $ 120.00 |
7/27/2022 | $ 5,685.00 |
6/15/2022 | $ (7,280.00) |
5/4/2022 | $ 6,930.00 |
3/16/2022 | $ 22,455.00 |
1/26/2022 | $ 16,340.00 |
The One Million MNS shows a net profit of $306,410 trading during the 18 weeks of FOMC (but not trade on the Wednesday of FOMC) going back to January 2022 with an average week of $17,022.
The Stock Index Portfolio 18 shows a net profit of $76,975 trading during the 18 weeks of FOMC (but not trading on the Wednesday of FOMC) going back to January 2022 with an average week of $4,276 per E-mini. The Micro results are approximately 1/10th of these results.
The previous portfolio calculator did not correctly exclude the trades on FOMC Day for March 20, 2024, which were very positive. The updated Portfolio Calculator excludes the previous FOMC Day which makes the portfolios less profitable overall than if we had traded on the previous FOMC Day. Historically, it is better to not trade on FOMC Day so we keep that stance even though in the short term, since November 1, there has been more favorable price action on FOMC Day.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. We recently hit equity peaks on these portfolios so it can make sense to wait for some intra-day drawdown to begin trading again, or to start trading. The cycles can be rapid so it is essential to have the portfolio setup while waiting for a drawdown.