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Trading System Signals on 02/02/2024

The 250K, 50 Strategy Portfolio that we have been tracking since January 16th was down -$200 on the day based on hypothetical results. We are waiting for a hypothetical drawdown/losing streak to begin live trading. The Nasdaq was up +$1250, the S&P was up +$450, and Crude Oil was up +$150. Gold lost early on the day -$2,050 with two long trades, getting hit by a stronger than expected Jobs Report.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was up $55 on the day.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro was -$167.50 on the day with one trade difference in the Micros. The Momentum Fader had a big gain on the E-mini but it did not trade on the Micro. The Micros have been ahead of the E-minis in performance. Today the E-minis outperformed the Micros on the same strategies.

The Stock Index Portfolio 27 had a nice bounce on the week. We continue to look for more ways to revise this portfolio but it held at the lows "pretty well".


The top equity performers (META and Magnificent 7) are really pushing the indexes higher. The Nasdaq had another big gain today of +284.25. The day session open was 17,502.50 and the day session close was 17,721.00. The point gain is based on yesterday's 4 pm EST settlement which was at a lower price than the 5 pm EST close and today's day session open.


I don't remember a time off the top of my head, without doing some research when the Advance Decline line which represents the broader market was this weak, with a low of -1900 and a high of -600 and a close of -1025 while the Nasdaq was this strong. Often times when the Nasdaq rallies this much off of weak market internals at the open, we see the market internals move to a much stronger level.


It seems like an incredibly stretched inflection point technically where the rest of the market starts to catch up and "broadens" or the Nasdaq leaders roll over after this recent run to new highs. The Nasdaq could not make it back to new highs today and the market continues its "stealth" bull market mode making moves in the after hours, overnight, or on weak market internals, generating fewer long trades in our day trade algorithms.


Since we are day traders, we don't trade these after hour moves and don't take as many long trades on weak market internals. It is hard to believe this would become a new normal for very long but we always consider what we see as a new opportunity even when it is the opposite of what typically works. Institutional liquidity looks for sellers to buy against when they want to allocate long positions so their patterns change as the market changes.


We posted an update on Cobra Euro Currency today. We look forward to entering on a drawdown and expanding our market exposure to other markets in the new portfolio setups. The last few years, we have taken advantage of strong Nasdaq and S&P momentum and trend moves. While the VIX remains low. We still have many strategies that can capture the long and short side of those moves while also allocating trades to other markets such as the Euro Currency, Soybeans, Coffee, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas when we go live again in the 250K Portfolio.


There was an interesting Weekly VIX Divergence with the VIX moving from 13.26 last Friday to 13.85 today, while the S&P and Nasdaq futures were up on the week. These are low levels and small moves but the VIX had been in the 12 handle. It has been elevated this week.


Some of the monthly and news cycles we typically see have been chop and drawdown at the beginning of the month and chop during news events. This week was the opposite with some big trends. Prior to the last few years, big trends were more of the norm at the beginning and end of month similar to what we saw this week. These cycles mean revert over time and we don't use these biases in individual trading systems but consider them as an insight on when we will get a good drawdown entry.

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