The One Million MNS was down 0.74% today, equating to -$7,400, while the 250K Portfolio incurred a loss of -$1,475 and the Stock Index Portfolio 18 was down -$1,825. These portfolios have shown a net gain over the last two days and have been on an upward trajectory since we began live trading this month.
There were some notable shorts today, and Momentum Reversals continue to exhibit strength, with the Nasdaq Momentum Reversal trading system reaching equity peaks.
The downtrend persists, characterized by choppiness and sluggishness. Whenever the market starts to decline rapidly, there is a swift resurgence in buying activity. This was evident in the Nasdaq shortly after the 4pm EST close, where it dipped below the day's lows at 16:00, only to experience a rapid mean reversion bounce of 80 points in about two minutes. These patterns are often overlooked unless closely observed. The Nasdaq can remain within an 80 point range for an hour, then swiftly return to that range within 1-2 minutes after a new low.
The most challenging aspect of the day is the consistent rebound and dip buying, perpetually chasing the day's highs even in a downtrend. The SR CounterTrend Nasdaq strategies went 0 for 8 today, exiting near the day's highs despite potentially lucrative short trades that could have made a significant difference between a profitable and a losing day. The nearly 200 point Nasdaq rally that lasted 1 hour and 40 minutes starting at 9:40 stopped out many of the SR CounterTrend NQ setups just before the market reversed lower.
Overall, today's pattern was characterized by divergence. Following an initially strong low, the market rallied to its highs, then reversed course back to the lows, concluding with a choppy close. We anticipate a cycle of strong selling into the close, as it has been some time since we've witnessed this type of price action. Even in robust bull markets, there are days when the market sells off towards the close.
Many other markets experienced stop-running price action as well.
Cocoa surged again today, climbing nearly 10% to reach all-time highs.